با همکاری انجمن‏‌ بیماری شناسی گیاهی ایران

نوع مقاله : مدیریت آفات و بیماری‌های گیاهی

نویسنده

بخش تحقیقات گیاه پزشکی، مرکز تحقیقات کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان گلستان، سازمان تحقیقات،آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، گرگان، ایران

چکیده

بادزدگی فیتوفترایی ناشی از Phytophthora infestans، مهم‌ترین بیماری سیب‌زمینی در دنیا و ایران است که برای پیش‌آگاهی آن تاکنون 16 مدل معرفی شده است. شهرستان گرگان دارای بیشترین سطح زیر کشت این محصول در استان است و طی 17 سال گذشته، در 11 سال بیماری با شدت‌های مختلف در آن ظاهر شده است. به‌منظور ساختن یک مدل پیش‌آگاهی مبتنی بر مفهوم «روز مساعد برای بادزدگی»، داده‌های آب و هوایی روزانه به صورت متغیرهای دوره‌ای و شرطی تبدیل شده، در نهایت سه متغیر پیشگو ساخته شد. بهترین متغیر پیشگو FTR بود که حاصل ترکیب سه متغیر دما و دو متغیر بارش بود و نمره‌ی روزانه‌ی آن از از 2- تا 4 در تغییر بود. مقدار تجمعی FTR از ابتدای فروردین ماه تا شروع بیماری 64 و در سال‌های بدون بیماری 4 بود. میزان درستی پیش‌بینی مدل بر اساس رگرسیون لجستیک و تابع تشخیص به ترتیب 75 و 89 درصد بود و حساسیت و اختصاصیت مدل نهایی به ترتیب حدود 92 و 100 درصد بود.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

GolPhyto, forecasting model of potato late blight in Gorgan

نویسنده [English]

  • Mohammad Ali Aghajani

Plant Protection Research Department, Golestan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Center, AREEO, Gorgan, Iran

چکیده [English]

Late blight (PLB), caused by Phytophthora infestans, is the most important diseases of potato in the world and Iran that 16 models have been developed for forecasting so far. Gorgan county had the largest potato cultivated area in the province and during recent 17 years, PLB appeared in 11 years with different severities. In order to developing a forecasting model based on “blight favorable day” concept, daily weather data converted to periodic and conditional variables, at last three predictor variables were developed. FTP was the best predictor variable which composed of three temperature variables and two precipitation variables and its daily score was -2 to 4. Accumulated FTR from 21 March to disease appearance was 64 and in no-disease years was 4. Prediction accuracy of the model was 75% and 89% based on logistic regression and discriminant analysis, respectively and sensitivity and specificity of final model was 92 and 100%, respectively.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • potato
  • late blight
  • Phytophthora infestans
  • modeling
  • forecasting
  • Golestan province
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